A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
